In this macro review we will touch upon the topic of the real estate market in more detail. As one of the key sectors of the economy, the position of which plays a significant role within the current business cycle.
When we consider the recessionary scenario for the further development of the economy, first of all it is necessary to pay attention to those areas that in previous cycles acted as sources of recessionary decline.
As we know, cyclically sensitive sectors most often became sources of unemployment growth in the conditions of a contraction of the business cycle.
The two key sectors here are manufacturing and construction.
Red - construction. Blue - production.
As can be seen from the graph, during periods of recession, these sectors are under the greatest pressure. And given their contribution to the recessionary decline in the labor market, they are the most valuable for analyzing the current stage of the economic cycle.
Moreover, what is characteristic is that the construction sector is experiencing the greatest pressure. And at the moment, from the point of view of macroanalysis, it is one of the most promising for detailed study.
Below we will examine in more detail the current picture in the real estate construction market.
This indicator, which is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, is now at its lowest levels since 2021, indicating a lack of signs of active economic development at the moment.
Y/Y
M/M
A related parameter, the New Home Starts Index, also indicates stagnation and slowdown in this area of the economy.